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Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rębecki: UFC 328, May 9, 2026

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey, U.S.
Grant Dawson11-2-1
SatMay 9Submission · R3Lightweight
Mateusz Rębecki4-3-0
64.3% (Elo 1619)(Elo 1517) 35.7%

Result

Grant Dawson wins by Submission (rear-naked choke)

round 3, 4:42

Pre-fight Elo gave Grant Dawson 64.3%: correct

Elo prediction

Elo
Grant Dawson 1619, Mateusz Rębecki 1517: a 102-point gap.
Common opponents
Carlos Diego Ferreira (Dawson: Win; Rębecki: Loss).
Form
Grant Dawson won 3 of the last 5, Mateusz Rębecki won 2 of 5. Form favours Grant Dawson.
Verdict
Grant Dawson slightly favoured · Grant Dawson 64.3% by Elo.
Grant Dawson64.3%ELO35.7%Mateusz Rębecki
1619 · Pre-fight Elo · 1517

Common opponents

OpponentGrant DawsonMateusz Rębecki
Carlos Diego Ferreira
WinDecision (unanimous), Jan 18, 2025
LossKO/TKO (punches), May 11, 2024

Recent form

Grant Dawson · won 3 of last 5Mateusz Rębecki · won 2 of last 5
150015501600165020192020202120222023202420252026Grant Dawson 2019-03-09: 1515Grant Dawson 2019-05-18: 1532Grant Dawson 2020-02-29: 1547Grant Dawson 2020-07-19: 1561Grant Dawson 2021-03-20: 1579Grant Dawson 2021-10-23: 1576Grant Dawson 2022-04-30: 1591Grant Dawson 2022-11-05: 1606Grant Dawson 2023-07-01: 1620Grant Dawson 2023-10-07: 1600Grant Dawson 2024-06-01: 1614Grant Dawson 2024-10-12: 1626Grant Dawson 2025-01-18: 1640Grant Dawson 2025-12-06: 1619Grant Dawson 2026-05-09: 16311631Mateusz Rębecki 2023-01-14: 1516Mateusz Rębecki 2023-06-24: 1532Mateusz Rębecki 2023-11-11: 1547Mateusz Rębecki 2024-05-11: 1532Mateusz Rębecki 2024-10-26: 1548Mateusz Rębecki 2025-08-02: 1532Mateusz Rębecki 2025-10-25: 1517Mateusz Rębecki 2026-05-09: 15061506

Elo after each UFC fight, first to latest. Hollow dots are losses.

Grant Dawson
Mateusz Rębecki

Tale of the tape

32Age33
177.8 cmHeight170.2 cm
182.9 cmReach167.6 cm
no data yetStanceno data yet
11-2-1UFC record4-3-0
1640Peak Elo1548

Records and Elo count UFC fights only.

Where to watch

Fight card: Paramount+

Prelims: Paramount+

Early prelims: Paramount+ / UFC Fight Pass

Per Wikipedia. eloline lists official broadcasters only.

More fights at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

Full card »
Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat ChimaevDecisionJoshua Van vs. Tatsuro TairaKO/TKOAlexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-AcostaDecisionSean Brady vs. Joaquin BuckleyDecisionKing Green vs. Jeremy StephensSubmissionAteba Gautier vs. Osman DiazKO/TKOYaroslav Amosov vs. Joel ÁlvarezSubmissionJim Miller vs. Jared GordonSubmission

FAQ

When and where is UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland?

Sat, May 9, 2026 at Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey, U.S..

How many rounds is this fight?

Standard UFC fights are three rounds of five minutes.

How does eloline's Elo work?

Every fighter starts at 1500. Wins add points, losses take them away, and beating a stronger opponent adds more. The win probability comes from the pre-fight Elo gap. Only UFC fights are counted for now.

Source: Wikipedia: UFC 328 (CC BY-SA 4.0). Records and Elo count UFC fights only.