UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
44.7% (Elo 1583)
(Elo 1621) 55.3%
Result
Umar Nurmagomedov wins by Decision (unanimous)
round 3, 5:00
Pre-fight Elo gave Mario Bautista 55.3%: missed
Elo prediction
- Elo
- Umar Nurmagomedov 1583, Mario Bautista 1621: a 38-point gap.
- Common opponents
- Cory Sandhagen (Nurmagomedov: Win; Bautista: Loss). Brian Kelleher (Nurmagomedov: Win; Bautista: Win).
- Form
- Umar Nurmagomedov won 4 of the last 5, Mario Bautista won 5 of 5. Form favours Mario Bautista.
- Verdict
- Mario Bautista slightly favoured · Mario Bautista 55.3% by Elo.
Umar Nurmagomedov44.7%ELO55.3%Mario Bautista
1583 · Pre-fight Elo · 1621
Common opponents
| Opponent | Umar Nurmagomedov | Mario Bautista |
|---|---|---|
| Cory Sandhagen | WinDecision (unanimous), Aug 3, 2024 | LossSubmission (armbar), Jan 19, 2019 |
| Brian Kelleher | WinSubmission (rear-naked choke), Mar 5, 2022 | WinSubmission (rear-naked choke), Jun 25, 2022 |
Recent form
Umar Nurmagomedov · won 4 of last 5Mario Bautista · won 5 of last 5
Elo after each UFC fight, first to latest. Hollow dots are losses.
Umar Nurmagomedov
- LossMerab DvalishviliDecision (unanimous) · R5 5:00
- WinCory SandhagenDecision (unanimous) · R5 5:00
- WinBekzat AlmakhanDecision (unanimous) · R3 5:00
- WinRaoni BarcelosKO/TKO (body kick and punch) · R1 4:40
- WinNate ManessDecision (unanimous) · R3 5:00
Mario Bautista
- WinPatchy MixDecision (unanimous) · R3 5:00
- WinJosé AldoDecision (split) · R3 5:00
- WinRicky SimónDecision (unanimous) · R3 5:00
- WinDa'Mon BlackshearDecision (unanimous) · R3 5:00
- WinGuido CannettiSubmission (rear-naked choke) · R1 3:18
Tale of the tape
29Age32
172.7 cmHeight175.3 cm
175.3 cmReachno data yet
no data yetStanceno data yet
6-1-0UFC record10-2-0
1618Peak Elo1633
Records and Elo count UFC fights only.
Where to watch
Prelims: ESPN+ / Disney+ / FX
Per Wikipedia. eloline lists official broadcasters only.
More fights at UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Full card »Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl GaneNCMackenzie Dern vs. Virna JandirobaDecisionAlexander Volkov vs. Jailton AlmeidaDecisionAzamat Murzakanov vs. Aleksandar RakićKO/TKOQuillan Salkilld vs. Nasrat HaqparastKO/TKOIkram Aliskerov vs. Park Jun-yongDecisionĽudovít Klein vs. Mateusz RębeckiDecisionValter Walker vs. Louie SutherlandSubmission
FAQ
When and where is UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane?
Sat, Oct 25, 2025 at Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
How many rounds is this fight?
Standard UFC fights are three rounds of five minutes.
How does eloline's Elo work?
Every fighter starts at 1500. Wins add points, losses take them away, and beating a stronger opponent adds more. The win probability comes from the pre-fight Elo gap. Only UFC fights are counted for now.
Source: Wikipedia: UFC 321 (CC BY-SA 4.0). Records and Elo count UFC fights only.