Ukraine vs Poland (UKR-POL) result: Esports Nations Cup East European Qualifier 2026, 18 Jul 2026

57.5%Win probability before the match42.5%
Map 1PolandwonMap 2UkrainewonMap 3Polandwon
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Ukraine vs Poland: what the model expected

Quick read

  • Rating35 Elo points separate Ukraine (1679) and Poland (1644).
  • Head-to-headThese teams have not met yet.
  • FormUkraine won 8 of their last 10; Poland won 5 of 10. Ukraine are in much better shape. More
  • Bottom lineBefore the start, Eloline gave Ukraine a 58% chance. This number was recomputed afterwards from the rating history, not logged before the match.

Ukraine vs Poland: rosters

UkraineElo: #192
fearIGL
AWP
sdyIGL
JamboProfile
Player comparison12 months before this match
55%Win rate46%
71Matches, 12 months81
8/10Last 10 matches4/10
won 5Current streaklost 1
21Age22
07/2026On the team since07/2026
800eDPI–
ultimate
ultimateProfile
PolandElo: #203
Ex1st
IGL
ultimateAWP

Settings source: Liquipedia (CC BY-SA 3.0).

Team comparison

UkraineTeamPoland
60% (3-2)Map win rate50% (2-2)
0-1Deciding maps won–lost–
100%Series wins without dropping a map100%
OpenTeam pageOpen

Ukraine and Poland: form going into the match

Ukraine · 8 of 10 wonPoland · 5 of 10 wonWonLost
143615191602168516771641143615191602168516771641
Elo after each match · oldernewer
WEstonia2–0
LRomania1–2
WTurkey1–0
WRomania1–0
LTurkey0–1
WRomania2–1
WBulgaria2–0
WGreece1–0
WArmenia1–0
WAlbania1–0
WCzech Republic2–0
LSerbia0–2
LLithuania0–2
LNetherlands0–2
LSerbia1–2
WAustralia1–0
WTurkey1–0
LSweden0–1
WCanada1–0
WTeam Norway1–0