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Liquid vs 500 (TL-500) result: Birch Cup 2025, 28 Sep 2025

LiquidLiquidLiquid#23 · Elo 17882500500Elo 16150
Birch Cup 2025 · PlayoffsMatch overBO3LAN
82.2%Win probability before the match17.8%
Map 1LiquidLiquidwonMap 2LiquidLiquidwon
Watch back
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Liquid vs 500: what the model expected

Quick read

  • Rating173 Elo points separate Liquid (1788) and 500 (1615).
  • Head-to-headLiquid 1-0 500 in 1 meeting since 2024. Liquid took the previous meeting 1-0 at Birch Cup 2025 (). More
  • FormLiquid won 5 of their last 10; 500 won 7 of 10. 500 come in slightly sharper. More
  • Bottom lineBefore the start, Eloline gave Liquid a 82% chance. This number was recomputed afterwards from the rating history, not logged before the match.

Liquid vs 500: rosters

LiquidElo: #23VRS: #19
EliGE
NAF
NertZ
IGL
ultimateAWP
ultimate
ultimateProfile
Player comparison12 months before this match
39%Win rate52%
33Matches, 12 months25
5/10Last 10 matches7/10
lost 1Current streakwon 2
21Age25
07/2024On the team since07/2024
–eDPI880
CeRq
CeRqProfile
500
CeRqAWP
hampusIGL
Rainwaker
REDSTARAWP

Settings source: Liquipedia (CC BY-SA 3.0).

Team comparison

LiquidTeam500
45% (70-85)Map win rate57% (183-136)
12-14Deciding maps won–lost31-18
50%Series wins without dropping a map57%
47 minAverage map length46 min
47%CT-side rounds won49%
36%First half won48%
OpenTeam pageOpen

Source: Liquipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0

Liquid vs 500: meetings before this one

LiquidLiquidLiquid1win0wins500500

1 meeting · Most recent: 1–0 to Liquid ()

BO1Birch Cup 2025 · Play-inLiquidLiquidLiquid79%11 : 050050021%0
The only meeting

Liquid and 500: form going into the match

Liquid · 5 of 10 won500 · 7 of 10 won
LiquidLiquidLiquidSee all
L9INE0–1
W5001–0
LThe MongolZ1–2
WAurora Gaming2–0
WFaZe2–0
WTYLOO2–1
WHeroic2–1
LGamerLegion0–2
LFURIA1–2
LSpirit0–2
500500See all
WESC Gaming2–0
WBetclic Apogee Esports2–0
LLiquid0–1
WkONO.ECF2–0
LBIG0–1
WAaB Esport1–0
WARCRED2–0
WTricked2–1
LGUN5 Esports0–2
WKHAN2–0

Map pool: how both teams fare on each map

LiquidWin %500
33%15 mapsLWWWW
Mirage
80%5 mapsWWLWW
38%16 mapsWLLWL
Dust II
0%3 mapsLLL
69%13 mapsWWWWL
Ancient
50%6 mapsWWWLL
25%12 mapsLLLLW
Inferno
50%4 mapsWWLL
43%7 mapsWLWLW
Nuke
13%8 mapsWLLLL
60%5 mapsLLWWW
Anubis
40%5 mapsLWWLL
25%8 mapsWLLLL
Train
–
–
Overpass
100%1 mapsW

Liquipedia CC BY-SA